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Japan JLeague Vissel Kobe- Sanfrecce Hiroshima 29/07/2015


Notes on Vissel's 2-1 home defeat to Gamba are in the preview above. They conceded for the eighth straight home game and it is close to impossible to see them keeping a clean sheet versus a Sanfrecce Hiroshima offense which is on fire right now, ahead of their last away start, a 2-1 win at Stage 1 champions Urawa, I wrote .....

"I like the odds about Sanfrecce Hiroshima today, if you take a quick look at the format, it is easy to make a case for them being the more motivated of the two given that they still have to qualify for post season play and have made no secret of the fact that they have eyes on a title this season .....After consecutive J-League titles they came up short last year, claiming to have been exhausted by the schedule, with two demanding Champions League campaigns, no such worries this year and they are very committed to another domestic title. They have shared the goals around this season, but the two main front men, Douglas and Sato both scored in midweek and look to be developing a potent understanding, Sato is a veteran now , but has been one of the most prolific J-L strikers for more than a decade and like most front men, tends to be very streaky and one goal usually follows another.

The front pair claimed 13 goals in stage 1 and incredibly, already have three between them in the two games since the restart , I only say "incredibly" as Sanfrecce nothched six in midweek without a contribution from Sato, he was taken off after little more than 50 minutes with today in mind and Douglas shortly afterwards and they should be fit and raring to go today.The pair will be boosted by the news that Urawa's vastly experienced central defender Daisuke Nasu is suspended, he has missed just one game this season in which Reds conceded three goals ( just 0.83 goals per game in the other 18 starts) and they have won just once in the five games he has sat out in the last three seasons. Last three h2h matches have been drawn and one goal today should be enough to secure at least a share of the points for the visitors and Urawa are less well equipped than usual to stop them scoring it."


They followed that up with another three points on Saturday and could largely switch off after the second goal, their 26th in just eight outings, at least two in each and with Kobe happier on the road, missing suspended left back Takahito Soma ( two defeats in 13 when he plays, 5 in 8 in his absence) and with a poor h2h record, I favour the visitors to claim the three points which will ensure they stay top of the overall championship for another week, having taken first place at the weekend.


Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

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Europa League: Athletic Bilbao - Inter Baku


Big gulf in class between these two and Inter who were only founded in 2004, have made this stage of the competition for the first time in seven attempts. They will likely be a little ahead in terms of match sharpness, given that they have already played four competitive matches in the Europa League, but that is balanced by a shorter off season and like Athletic, they have yet to begin their domestic campaign. Athletic have a history of success in this competition and Spanish clubs always treat it with respect, which is something we have discussed many times previously and seven of the last twelve winners have come from La Liga, a Champions League spot came along with Sevilla's success last season and Bilbao will know that this competition provides their "easiest" route into the premier international club competition.

Hosts are little changed from last season when they finished 7th in La Liga, following a strong finish to their campaign which saw them collect 36 points ( 1.89 pg) over the second half of the season and also make the Copa del Rey final. That form over a full season (72 points) equates very close to top 4 (Champions League level) , infact, Atletic were 4th in 13/14 with just 70 points and they will certainly enter this campaign full of optimism. They have named their strongest available squad today and it is one full of quality and only really missing Mikel Rico and hugely gifted Iker Munian, but they learned to win without the talented left winger who missed much of the end of last season and should be able to secure a big enough lead in the firts leg to make the return little more than a training game.

Although their Spainish season doesn't start for another three weeks, they are well ahead in terms of preparation as they have a two legged Super Cup match up with Barcelona up first and want to be at full speed for those games.


Athletic Bilbao -2 goals 1.84 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

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New York City FC - Montreal Impact

Ahead of a recent home game with Toronto FC I wrote the following about NYCFC........

"This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.

These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week ."


They drew that 4-4 (!) and the defence is still very much a work in progress judged by that and their next home game a 5-3 defeat of Orlando City last weekend, but goals at the other end of the pitch are clearly not an issue and we saw a huge impact from Andrea Pirlo who, in just over 30 minutes of action set up any number of chances and oozed class. With another week under his belt in training and now Frank Lampard alongside him, there is going to be huge interest in this game and I do not think that any team in the MLS can handle Villa, Lamps and Pirlo at the same time, especially not an Impact side conceding at the rate of two goals per away start, even if it is only for 45-60 minutes !

New York City FC -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

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Scotland: Dundee United-Aberdeen 02/08


Last season on opening day we saw these two play in the reverse fixture, Aberdeen went into that game drained, having been eliminated from the Europa League just a couple of days previously and they lost 3-0. It did not stop them ultimately having their best season in yeras and they were the closest challengers to champions Celtic all season long and only three points adrift as late as mid March. Today we have a little bit of history repeating as the Dons again played a Europa League match on Thursday, this time having made the longest trip in European football history (and back) to play Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan , where they lost 2-1 in very tough conditions. That was an 11,000km round trip which effectively lasted four days in terms of travel and acclimatisation, across five time zones (and back !), having already been to Macedonia and Croatia in the last month, they must be at least a little jaded and it will be hard to get "up" for today's bread and butter action.

They are focused on extending their European adventure and expended a lot of energy to get that away goal on Thursday after falling behind to two early goals and are sure to have one eye on the return leg this week. United will have been fully focused on this for weeks and will be looking for the highly energetic, upbeat performance they put in on this day last year, they also won both home games against Aberdeen and backing them with a handicap start today looks the way to go, as I am certain that the visitors would see a point as one earned rather than two lost. The hosts started last season very strongly, and were 6-1-1 and top of the SPL after eight matches and are looking for something similar this time round, they have had a "poor" pre season results wise, but have been playing top level opposition and pushed EPL side Watford very close last weekend in their final warm up game. Anyway, far from ideal prep for Aberdeen and I have to oppose them.


Dundee United +0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket

 

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England League 1: Gillingham - Sheffield United


Hosts are my big priced League 1 selection and we get an early look at their credentials today as they entertain the bookmakers favourites. Having said that, we will have 45 matches left to play after today so nothing is going to be decided either way at Priestfield, but it would be nice to start on the front foot. Gills beat United here 2-0 just six months ago courtesy of two late goals and have seriously upgraded since in my opinion, both in terms of personnel and how the club are now run under Justin Edinburgh ( see both below). I don't really have an issue with United as favourites to win League 1, they are a massive club at this level and will draw huge crowds if even moderately successful. However, odds of 5.50 do not reflect their real chance of winning the division in my opinon and they have not exactly thrilled me with their off season activity in the transfer market. They also have a new manager in Nigel Adkins and I can tell you one thing about him, he will have had the players working incredibly hard in pre season, probably harder than they have ever done previously, some will thrive on that, others will not, the ones that do will certainly benefit from it at some stage through the season, but they might well be a little "leggy" to begin with. However, pre season results have been decent so maybe they will hit the ground running, but they are very short of options in the middle of the backline and Adkins is desperate to bring at least one central defender in as soon as possible, it is a big squad now at Bramall Lane , but they are currently missing eight senior players with an average of over 25 apperances each last season, including two key figures in Brayford and Done and five who started the final play off match of last season. United arrive in confident mood, but given their injury list and that the Gills beat them here recently when United had far more to play for and that the home side have done more in terms of bringing in players since, I have to suggest a strong bet on the home side plus the handicap start.

Gillingham +0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

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England Cup Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon 08/11/2015


Dons had a very disappointing opening day home loss to Playmouth Argyle, they lost 2-0 and the visitors very quickly suuseed out the 3-4-3 formation of Wimbledon that manager Neal Ardley claims to be committed to. Even pre match Ardley said that his players "haven't properly grasped the formation yet" and heads dropped quite quickly once they fell behind and if the players do not believe, it will not work. Several of them are being asked to play unfamiliar roles and ones they were clearly unsuited to, with wingbacks lacking the pace or stamina and this very quick turnaround, playing away to a team who were in the top flight in 2014 looks a big ask and with several players in the away squad the wrong side of 30, three are in their 34th + year, the saying of old dogs and new tricks springs to mind. 3-4-3 "never" works in L2, Newport County and Bury tried it last season and quickly dumped it and I suspect that Dons will do likewise, but the coach appears adament he will stick with it in the league for now and it would seem even more foolhardy to play it on Saturday, ditch it tonight and go back to it again this weekend, but to go with it this evening against a stronger team who will have had Dons watched at the weekend, could be suicidal.

City opened with a 1-1 home draw with Fulham on saturday, they felt they deserved more and will certainly want the win tonight and get the supporters on their side ( weekend attendance was the lowest since City moved out of Ninian Park) after a very disappointing first season back in the Championship, failure to win again will be a mini disaster for them and they could do with a confidence boost ahead of back to back road games with QPR and Blackburn Rovers. The more realistic home supporters felt that this was one of the better performances in the last two seasons and one which offers real cause for optimism, fitness levels were heavily criticised last season and have clearly been addressed by boss Russel Slad over the last eight months or so, starting at the end of the last camapign and they looked so much physically stronger at the weekend and they can make this count this evening, in a match where City really need a win.


Cardiff City -1.25 goals 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

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